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Wednesday, November 29, 2006

Forex Trade Review - 11/28/06

No trade triggered

Forex Trade Signal – 12:37 am EST 11/29/06
  • Long GBP/USD at 1.9555, stop at 1.9525, pt1 at 1.9585, pt2 at 1.9620
  • Short GBP/USD at 1.9475, stop at 1.9505, pt1 at 1.9445, pt2 at 1.9405

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Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Forex Trade Signal – 1:09 am EST 11/28/06
  • Short GBP/USD at 1.9360, stop at 1.9390, pt1 at 1.9330, pt2 at 1.9300
Looking for a USD correction!

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Wednesday, November 22, 2006

Forex Trade Review: 11/21/2006

No trade triggered.

Forex Trade Signal – 12:02 am EST 11/16/06
  • Long GBP/USD at 1.9050, stop at 1.9030, pt1 at 1.9070, pt2 at 1.9090
  • Short GBP/USD at 1.9000, stop at 1.9020, pt1 at 1.8980, pt2 at 1.8950

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Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Forex Trade Signal – 12:02 am EST 11/16/06
  • Long GBP/USD at 1.8935, stop at 1.8915, pt1 at 1.8955, pt2 at 1.8975
  • Short GBP/USD at 1.9010, stop at 1.9030, pt1 at 1.8990, pt2 at 1.8970

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Thursday, November 16, 2006

Forex Trade Review - 11/15/06

Short trade triggered:

Lot 1: -20 pips
Lot 2: -20 pips
Total: -40 pips

Man, we missed out last night as our trade got stopped out before moving back in our direction and hitting max profitability.....grrrrrr!!!

Forex Trade Signal – 12:12 am EST 11/16/06
  • Long GBP/USD at 1.8930, stop at 1.8910, pt1 at 1.8950, pt2 at 1.8980
  • Short GBP/USD at 1.8860, stop at 1.8950, pt1 at 1.8840, pt2 at 1.8810

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Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Forex Trade Review - 11/15/06

Short trade triggered:

Lot 1: +20 pips
Lot 2: +00 pips
Total: +20 pips

Forex Trade Signal – 12:39 am EST 11/15/06
  • Long GBP/USD at 1.8990, stop at 1.8970, pt1 at 1.9010, pt2 at 1.9050
  • Short GBP/USD at 1.8930, stop at 1.8950, pt1 at 1.8910, pt2 at 1.8880

Also, I noticed my "Pick of the Day" hasn't been posted yet, so here it is:

With constant data out of the US showing a slowing economy, and speculation of a possible Japanese rate hike, I am looking for a short in USD/JPY. Japan did release their Tertiary Industry Index number earlier at -1.3%, which was lower than expected, so we may see the Yen weaken during the Asian trading session. If the pair hits the 118.00 area, this would be a nice time to jump in to short and play the upcoming US reports of the Empire Manufacturing Index at 8:30 am EST and the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 2:00 pm EST. The markets may be quiet before these reports, but we may see USD/JPY drift lower as it prices in the data, which is expected to disappoint.

Depending on price action during the Euro session, I may adjust the entry orders in the morning if our trade is not triggered. So, check out my blog in the morning (around 8:00 am EST) for any adjustments.

Short USD/JPY at 118.10 , stop at 118.30, pt1 at 117.90, pt2 at 117.70

Good luck and good trading!

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Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Forex Trade Signal – 12:32 am EST 11/14/06
  • Long GBP/USD at 1.9070, stop at 1.9050, pt1 at 1.9090, pt2 at 1.9130
  • Short GBP/USD at 1.8975, stop at 1.8995, pt1 at 1.8955, pt2 at 1.8905

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Thursday, November 09, 2006

Forex Trade Signal – 12:59 am EST 11/09/06
  • Long GBP/USD at 1.9080, stop at 1.9060, pt1 at 1.9100, pt2 at 1.9130
  • Short GBP/USD at 1.9000, stop at 1.9020, pt1 at 1.8980, pt2 at 1.8910

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Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Closing Longer Term GBP/USD Trade:

I have decided to close out our longer-term short on GBP/USD. The current market price is 1.9065, so if you close at that rate you will be taking a -25 pip loss per lot.

The reason I am closing is for purely fundamental reasons. We have the Bank of England interest rate decision coming on Thursday. They are expected to raise interest rates to 5.00%, which means GBP/USD will probably drift higher as traders position for that announcement.

Also, reports are coming in that the Democrats have won control of the House of Representatives. This means political gridlock if the Republicans maintain control of the Senate. If the Democrats take control of the Senate, then we'll see tight fiscal policy for the next few years in the US. Both cases mean a weaker Greenback which would've gone against our trade.

So, the trade is off. At one point we were +85 pips per lot, but the trade went against us and went into the red. A part of me sees this as a failed trade as I let a profitable trade turn into a losing trade, but another part of me sees it as a success as we stuck to my original analysis of this pair being over bought. For those of you who know my trading style, know that I think fundies over rule technicals, and this was the case.

There will be no signals tonight. I will post signals tomorrow night as major economic news releases will resume on Thursday.

Have a great night! (or morning for all of my friends in the opposite hemisphere) :)

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Tuesday, November 07, 2006

No signal tonight as we have the US midterm elections through out the day tomorrow. I'm not expecting much volatility until the election results are out, so my signal probably won't be effective. No sense to risk getting whipsawed out of a trade tomorrow.

As for my longer term pick, we were actually up almost +90 pips per lot at one point, but the pair never hit pt1. Now, it's back to our order entry. I will hold onto this trade, but adjust the stops on both lots to 1.9130 from 1.9150. We'll stay put and see what happens in the next couple of days. Take care, good luck and good trading!


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Friday, November 03, 2006

Non-Farm Payroll Trade Idea:

Wow - what a report! While the October NFP number came out below expectations at 92K, there was a revision of the September number from 51K to 148K shows the job market isn't as tight as we all thought.

Also, we have other good jobs data as the unemployment rate lowered from 4.6 percent to 4.4 percent, avg. hourly earnings rose to 3.9 percent.

The market in GBP/USD has stalled after an initial reaction of almost 100 pips drop after the release. I think the trend may continue as the market digests the new information, so we will look to go short.

Short GBP/USD @ 1.8970, stop @ 1.8990, pt1 @1.8950, pt2 @ 1.8900


For those who took my longer-term trade idea from the previous post, we are currently up +50 pips, but we still have a little ways to go to hit pt1. No adjustments at this time.

Good luck and good trading everyone! Have a wonderful weekend!

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Thursday, November 02, 2006

Longer Term GBP/USD Trade Setup:

As promised here's a longer term trade setup that I will be watching for:


Here we have a daily chart on GBP/USD. In the past month, we've seen the pair move from approximately 1.8500 to about 1.9100 - that a 700 pip move!!! Recent weak US data has been the reason we've seen a rally in Cable against the Greenback, but I will be looking for a sell off for a few reasons.
  1. I think we will see profit taking if the pair fails to break the previous year high of 1.9143.
  2. Stochastics are currently showing that GBP/USD is overbought.
  3. The price is currently at the upper Bollinger band set to two standard deviations. Another indication of overbought market.
  4. Recent COT data has shown a decline in net long GBP positions over the past 3 months.
So, if a USD correction does take place, I think we'll see a pretty big move to the downside. Here's a trade idea that I will be watching:

Short GBP/USD @ 1.9040, stop @ 1.9150, pt1 @ 1.8940, pt2 @ 1.8760

Because of the wide stop, I would recommend trading this with smaller lot sizes.

Our biggest risk is a slowing US economy and more negative US data, so we'll keep an eye on fundamentals in the next coming weeks.

Good luck and good trading everyone!!!!

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Wednesday, November 01, 2006

I apologize for the lack of signals this week. I feel that the signal won't be effective as we have seen a major run in GBP/USD which means we will probably see consolidation - especially before the NFP report on Friday.

To make it up to everyone, I do have a longer term trade idea in the works based on the extended USD sell off we've seen in the past couple of weeks. I should have this posted up tonight or tomorrow night, and I will send out an email as well.

As for signals, I won't have any until Friday morning before the Euro trading session to get ready for the Non-Farm Payroll report.

Until then, please check out my "Daily Picks" at BabyPips.com

On a side note - BabyPips.com v.2 is almost ready!!! Please sign up on the email list at http://www.babypips.com to be alerted when it's released!

Take care everyone, good luck and good trading!

Forex Trade Review - 10/27/06

Long trade triggered:

Lot 1: +20 pips
Lot 2: +55pips
Total: +75 pips

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Disclaimer

Currency trading involves substantial risk of loss, and thus is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider your financial situation before opening a trading account, and only risk capital should be used when trading in these markets. In addition, we recommend you consult your financial advisor to help you determine if currency trading is appropriate for you. Pipcrawler does not provide personal trading advice, and nothing contained in this web site should be construed as personalized trading advice. Although Pipcrawler obtains his information from sources that it deems reliable, no warranty can be given as to the accuracy or the completeness of any of the information provided or as to the results obtained by those using such information. While we believe the information contained herein is accurate, Pipcrawler or his affiliates cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information, the timeliness of the transmissions, errors or omissions in the transmission of such information. Any reliance on the information contained within this website in making investment decisions is solely at the risk of the user, and each user shall be solely responsible for any and all losses resulting from such investments. In no event shall Pipcrawler be liable for any direct, indirect, actual, special or consequential damage or losses resulting from the use of the information provided herein.