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Sunday, October 15, 2006

USD/JPY Short??????

Here's my argument for a short term bearish trade on USD/JPY:

First, let's take a look at a couple of charts...

We have a daily chart on USD/JPY with bollinger bands and stochastics show possible buyer exhaustion in the pair after the strong move from 116.00 to almost hitting 120.00.

We have a weekly chart on futures positions showing a record net short positions on the Yen.

On the fundamental side, the Bank of Japan hasn't ruled out any future rate hikes, but it's all dependent on future data.

Of course, we have to review potential risk, which is the strong US economy. Last week's US data releases have show the markets that the US economy won't be slowing down anytime soon and that future rate cuts aren't in the books right now.

But, with such a strong move in USD against many of the majors and sideways action in USD/JPY for the past few trading sessions, I will be looking for a short term correction. I'm

I just wanted to give everyone a heads up on what i'm watching right now. Stay tuned for a longer term trade idea on this pair!

Hope everyone had a great weekend!!!

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