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Sunday, October 08, 2006

Forex Trade - 10/08/06

Here's a longer term trade idea:

Short USD/JPY @ 118. 70, stop @ 119.25, pt1 @ 118.10, pt2 @ 117.50

Here we have an hourly chart of USD/JPY. I was checking out the COT data on both the USD and JPY. While the futures positioning of USD looks pretty neutral, the futures postitioning in the Yen is in "super oversold territory" - that's professional trader lingo btw ;) On the chart above, we see the pair made a run from 116.00 to 119.00. I see a short term overbought market with this extended run and stochastics showing overbought as well. So, we'll go short and it may take a few days to hit max profitability.

The sentiment has been pro USD for the past few trading sessions, but maybe we'll see if the USD sentiment changes this week with a few key economic releases like the US Trade Balance and Retail Sales this week. We also have key economic releases out of Japan with Trade Balance and Current Account on Wednesday, Consumer confidence on Thursday, and Interest Rate Statement and BOJ Monetary Policy Report on Friday. We also have geopolitical risk as the North Korean nuclear test may weaken the Yen. This should be an interesting week!!

Also, on the BabyPips front we have a few new things...Pip Diddy is going on hiatus with his Chart Analysis. He's been called on a super secret pip mission for the President, so we may not see him again until the new BabyPips.com is released. Big Pippin will be taking on his chart analysis duties, and with his massive Pippin skills we'll see something new and exciting! Check out Big Pippin's skills at http://www.babypips.com/forex-analysis/pippinainteasy.htm

Good luck and good trading!!

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